Adelaide Near Peak as Melbourne Hits the Trough

Early 2026 brings strong momentum as agents return to work. Adelaide and Melbourne are moving in opposite property cycles: Adelaide is near the peak (around “11 o’clock”) with expected growth of roughly 8–10% in 2026, while Melbourne is near the bottom (around “6 o’clock”) and positioned for stronger growth later. COVID amplified Adelaide’s upswing via unusually strong interstate migration (notably from Melbourne), while Melbourne’s downturn was intensified by pandemic-era settings. The divergence has produced an estimated 110–120% variance in outcomes, with some Adelaide areas up close to 90% and Melbourne down 20–30%. A Melbourne apartment bought in 2004 may recover and exceed its purchase price within about four years, making selling now unattractive; selling near Perth’s peak and buying Melbourne near its trough would be well-timed. For a $750k first investment, priority is Northeast or South Adelaide, targeting land, transport access, and enduring livability features. For an inherited Parafield Gardens house on ~880 m², selling “as is” may best capture development upside.